Senate Battlegrounds 2026

Florida · U.S. Senate (special election)

Fielded October 18-20, 2026 Mode Mobile text responses and landline interviews Sample 1,014 likely general election voters MoE ±3.06% Released October 2026

If the November 3rd general election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?

48%

Ashley Moody

Republican

40%

Angie Nixon

Democrat

2%

Neil Gillespie

No Party Affiliation

11%

Undecided

 

Moody +8

The numbers behind the ballot

Candidate favorability

Ashley Moody

Favorable 40%
Unfavorable 33%
No opinion 27%

Angie Nixon

Favorable 33%
Unfavorable 31%
No opinion 36%

Moody is net positive by 7; Nixon is net positive by 2. 36% of voters offer no opinion of Nixon.

Views of President Trump and Governor DeSantis

Donald Trump

Favorable 41%
Unfavorable 53%
No opinion 6%

Ron DeSantis

Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 44%
No opinion 4%

What is your opinion of Donald Trump? What is your opinion of Ron DeSantis?

Governor ballot

49%Byron Donalds, R
40%David Jolly, D
11%Undecided

If the November 3rd general election for Governor of Florida were held today, who would you vote for?

Direction of the state

41%Right direction
44%Wrong direction
16%Unsure

Would you say things in Florida are headed in the right direction or in the wrong direction?

Full toplines

Q1 Would you say things in Florida are headed in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
Wrong direction 44%
Right direction 41%
Unsure 16%
Q2 What is your opinion of Donald Trump?
Favorable 41%
Unfavorable 53%
Unsure 6%
Never heard 1%
Q3 What is your opinion of Ron DeSantis?
Favorable 52%
Unfavorable 44%
Unsure 4%
Never heard 1%
Q4 If the November 3rd general election for Governor of Florida were held today, which Party's candidate would you be most likely to vote for?
Republican 49%
Democrat 41%
Third Party 0%
Undecided 10%
Q5 What is your opinion of Byron Donalds?
Favorable 40%
Unfavorable 40%
Unsure 14%
Never heard 6%
Q6 What is your opinion of David Jolly?
Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 38%
Unsure 24%
Never heard 7%
Q7 If the November 3rd general election for Governor of Florida were held today, who would you vote for?
Byron Donalds, R 49%
David Jolly, D 40%
Undecided 11%
Q8 If the November 3rd general election for U.S. Senate were held today, which Party's candidate would you be most likely to vote for?
Republican 48%
Democrat 42%
Third Party 4%
Undecided 6%
Q9 What is your opinion of Ashley Moody?
Favorable 40%
Unfavorable 33%
Unsure 18%
Never heard 9%
Q10 What is your opinion of Angie Nixon?
Favorable 33%
Unfavorable 31%
Unsure 25%
Never heard 11%
Q11 If the November 3rd general election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
Ashley Moody, R 48%
Angie Nixon, D 40%
Neil Gillespie, NP 2%
Undecided 11%

Methodology

co/efficient surveyed 1,014 likely general election voters in Florida on October 18-20, 2026, using mobile text responses and landline interviews. Results are weighted on age, gender, race, education, geography, and registered party to reflect the likely 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is ±3.06 percentage points. Full question wording appears with each result above.

Registered Party

Republican47%
Democrat32%
NP/Other21%

Gender

Female54%
Male46%

Age

18-349%
35-4411%
45-5414%
55-6420%
65+46%

Ideology

Conservative49%
Moderate32%
Liberal20%

Race

White65%
Hispanic19%
Black12%
Other Race4%

Education

HS37%
Some College29%
College21%
Grad+13%

Last 4 Generals

4 of 445%
3 of 423%
2 of 412%
1 of 413%
0 of 49%

Media Market

Orlando20%
Tampa24%
Jacksonville9%
West PB10%
Miami17%
Other MMA21%

Household Income

<$50k27%
$50-75k16%
$75-100k13%
$100-150k32%
$150k+12%

Community Type

Suburban51%
Urban33%
Rural16%

Last 4 Primaries

High Prop Primary26%
Low Prop Primary74%